After another one of those lengthy, boring and frankly irritating gaps between matches, United finally return to action as they welcome Aston Villa to Old Trafford in what is shaping up to be a fairly significant clash in the race for Champions League football.
Unai Emery — a man who's been linked with the United job — brings his free-falling Villans to face Michael Carrick’s Red Devils, who until last weekend had never experienced defeat under their interim boss.
Both sides come into this game licking their wounds after losses last time out. Different scorelines perhaps, but the sting is the same, especially with the Champions League race tightening by the week.
Matches between these two tend to be cagey affairs and I suspect this one won’t be any different. Nobody really wants to blink first.
Predicted Lineup
I don’t think Carrick will make any changes to the side that lost to Newcastle.
Martinez is still unavailable according to reports during the week, which means the centre-back pairing of Yoro and Maguire should continue. Mazraoui limped off at St James’ Park but he was seen back in training this week so he should be fit enough to start again.
Dalot being dropped for that Newcastle game was a bit of a surprise at the time, but I don’t see any reason to suddenly reverse that decision now.
Further forward, Mbeumo has come under heavy criticism after a few poor performances, with the Newcastle display arguably being his worst of the season.
And considering Amad was dropped for a similar dip in form, many fans have started asking the obvious question.
Should Mbeumo face the same treatment?
In the name of fairness, perhaps he should.
But I don’t think it’ll happen. The 10-day break probably works in his favour here. If this game had come three or four days later, Carrick might have been tempted to rotate. Instead, I suspect United's top scorer gets another chance to play his way out of the slump.
Mbeumo continues.
Approach
What I want to see first and foremost is more energy.
Too often since Carrick took over, United have started games like a team that’s just stepped off a long coach journey rather than one that’s been preparing all week. Slow starts have become a bit of a theme and it’s frustrating because there’s no real excuse for it.
Villa played on Thursday. United have had ten days to prepare.
If there was ever a moment to start fast and actually impose ourselves early, it’s this one.
Once the pressure is applied though, it needs to stay there. United have this annoying habit of easing off once they take the lead, which in the Premier League is basically an open invitation for the opposition to stroll back into the game.
Villa have more than enough quality to punish that sort of complacency.
Another issue that keeps popping up is the overall style of play. The counter-attacking approach works away from home against stronger sides, but at Old Trafford you need something more proactive. Home advantage, fresher legs, a slightly wounded opponent — all the ingredients are there to actually control a match.
If Carrick genuinely wants the job on a permanent basis, he needs to show a bit more tactical imagination. Eddie Howe and his ten-man Newcastle side were actually better than United despite the man disadvantage for half a game. That wasn’t exactly the best audition tape.
And then there’s the striker situation.
United still don’t seem entirely sure how to play with one.
Benjamin Sesko has scored 4 goals under Carrick, which is impressive when you consider the amount of chances he actually receives. A header here, a breakaway there, the outrageous flick — that’s about the extent of it.
Half the time it feels like Sesko is scoring despite the system rather than because of it.
For someone with his height and aerial ability, United make surprisingly little use of crosses. Even when we work the ball into wide areas well, the player on the ball often hesitates, cuts back inside or plays it backwards instead of simply putting it into the box.
By the time the cross finally arrives, the opposition defence has already organised itself and the opportunity is gone.
Early crosses are a striker’s best friend and a defender’s worst nightmare. Yet United treat them like a last resort.
The ball also needs to reach Mbeumo and Cunha more consistently. Those two are a couple of our most dangerous attackers, but there are games where we become overly dependent on one flank and practically ignore the other.
Against Newcastle, everything seemed to funnel through Cunha on the left. It didn’t work particularly well either, as he ended up having a fairly quiet evening despite seeing plenty of the ball.
Then there’s midfield.
Mainoo and Casemiro have struggled in recent matches. West Ham, Everton, Palace and Newcastle all managed to get the better of them for large periods, which is not exactly reassuring.
I’ve actually been a bit disappointed with Mainoo in particular. Moving him back into the double pivot alongside Casemiro felt like it should bring him closer to the level we saw during his breakout season.
It hasn’t really happened yet.
Casemiro, despite his obvious limitations at this stage of his career, is still our best midfielder and still capable of popping up with important goals. The worrying part is that even with those weaknesses he still looks more reliable than both Mainoo and Ugarte.
Which leads to one final plea.
Please don’t take Casemiro off for Ugarte again.
Just… don’t 🙏.
Look, I know some of this sounds repetitive because the fixes themselves are fairly simple: more intensity, use the width properly, feed Sesko and tighten up the midfield.
But small improvements in those areas would make a noticeable difference to how this team functions.
We’re not asking for tactical wizardry here.
Just basic competence would be a nice start.
Form
United’s defeat to Newcastle was the first loss of the calendar year and the first ever under Carrick.
Thankfully it didn’t damage our league position too badly because Villa also lost, meaning United remain 3rd. Chelsea’s win over Villa, however, has dragged them back into the race and the gap to us is now just 3 points.
In other words, the Champions League fight is getting a little bit ridiculous.
Confidence probably took the biggest hit from that Newcastle defeat. Prior to that, United had built enough momentum to afford the occasional slip.
Now the margin for error is looking a lot thinner.
Goal difference remains solid at +11 and the home record is still respectable as well. United sit 3rd in the home table and have lost only twice at Old Trafford all season.
Interestingly, the reverse fixture was Villa’s first win against United since the 21/22 campaign. Between those results there were four United victories and one draw.
For once, we actually seem to have a decent record against someone.
Strange feeling, I know.
Aston Villa
Villa’s season has been… odd.
They began the campaign struggling to score goals, then suddenly caught fire and went on an incredible 11-game winning run that briefly had people whispering about a title challenge.
But since then, things have fallen apart.
They now sit 16 points behind Arsenal after once being within touching distance and their recent form has seen them slide down the table. United overtook them after the Palace win while their defeat to Wolves highlighted just how far their performances have dipped.
There’s now a genuine concern among Villa fans that they could fall out of the Champions League places entirely. United, Chelsea and Liverpool have all found enough momentum to start applying pressure.
Emery himself admitted earlier in the season that perhaps his side weren’t quite ready for a top-5 finish.
Recent results haven’t exactly argued against that idea.
Villa have won just one of their last five matches, losing the last two and conceding 6 goals to Wolves and Chelsea. Their attacking numbers are also underwhelming for a team chasing Europe. With 39 goals scored, they have the second-lowest tally in the top 10, ahead of only Everton.
Defensively they haven’t been much better either, conceding 34 and sitting on a modest +5 goal difference.
They’re also noticeably weaker away from home. Villa are 6th in the away table with six wins, four draws and four defeats. Their away goal difference sits at -1, which suggests teams do find joy against them on the road.
Old Trafford certainly hasn’t been a happy hunting ground either.
Their last win here came in September 2021 and remains their only victory at the Theatre of Dreams since December 2009.
Their last visit was particularly chaotic as well. Emi Martinez — a goalkeeper heavily linked with United at the time — got himself sent off, Villa had a controversial goal ruled out and eventually lost 2-0.
One of those afternoons where absolutely everything went wrong.
They’ll probably feel there’s unfinished business because of it.
Prediction
Trying to predict a United match right now is like throwing darts while blindfolded.
We could beat the likes of City and Arsenal one week and then lose to ten men the next.
That said, there are a few factors working in United’s favour here. The home advantage, Villa playing on Thursday, their recent form dipping and the generally positive record against them.
Put all of that together and I’m leaning towards a United win.
Not a thrilling one.
Not a convincing one.
But a win nonetheless.
2–1.
Scrappy. Slightly dull. Probably stressful.
And honestly, if it helps secure Champions League football, I’ll take it without a single complaint.
Anything will do at this point.
I can't deal with these HUUUGGGEEEE gaps between matches! It's killing me 😭!
So the real question is…
Will it be a good ebening at Old Trafford — or not?
Bryan Mbeumo | Image via Manchester United official X (@ManUtd)
Old Trafford | Image credit: Getty Images via Goal
Morgan Rogers | Image via Aston Villa official X (@AVFCOfficial)