Monday nights are back… brilliant 😐

United host Brentford at Old Trafford, and after beating one West London side last time out, Michael Carrick will be hoping for the same again here.

And a win also pretty much confirms Champions League football.

Now, realistically, it’s already done — an 8-point gap to 6th with a game in hand means it would take something borderline historic for that to slip — but just get the 3 points and we can all finally stop pretending we’re nervous about it.

That said… it’s a Monday night 😬.

And if you’ve watched United this season, you already know what that usually means. Add Brentford into the mix — a team that causes us problems pretty much every time we face them — and this starts to feel like one of those games where you don’t really know whether to be confident or concerned 😅.

‍

Predicted Lineup

There probably won’t be too many surprises with the team either.

Assuming no fresh injuries or the PGMOL deciding to ban a player for breathing too aggressively, you’d expect something fairly straightforward.

‍

Maguire comes back in after his suspension, and honestly, we’ve missed that aerial presence. He’ll likely slot in next to Heaven, who after that performance against Chelsea, has done more than enough to keep his place. Shaw and Dalot as full-backs even if it’s a little harsh on Mazraoui, who’s did a solid job filling in at CB last weekend.

Beyond that, it probably stays the same.

If Carrick didn’t go with a false 9 in a game where everyone thought he would, there’s no real reason to expect anything different here.

‍

Approach

Which brings us to how United are actually going to play.

At this point, we kind of know what it’s going to look like.

Pragmatic.
A bit cautious.
A lot of relying on moments.

To be fair though, it’s worked. The results have been good, United are sitting comfortably in the top 5, and Champions League football is basically secured so, naturally, people will ask what's the issue?

But the issue is still the same: the performances don’t always match the results.

‍

It’s very moments-based, and heavily reliant on Bruno Fernandes. And I don’t just mean he’s important — he’s involved in pretty much everything.

He’s got 14 goal contributions in 12 games under Carrick, and there’s only been two matches where he hasn’t produced something.

At this point, if Bruno has an off day, I’m not even convinced we create anything. That’s not control, that’s just hoping your best player bails you out again.

And while we’re here, CAN EVERYONE JUST STOP TALKING ABOUT THE ASSIST RECORD?!

He’s 3 away, we all know… but why are we trying to jinx it? Just let it happen, man.

‍

What made the Chelsea game interesting though was something we don’t see often enough.

Towards the end, United actually started playing football.

Short, quick, incisive passing. The ball was never in the same place for too long. And nor were the players. It looked like a team that actually knew what it was doing, a team with a bit of structure and confidence. And it just makes you wonder why we don’t see more of that because if we did, the performances would match the results a lot more consistently.

Follow me on TikTok for daily vids and more content like this 😉.

‍

Instead, we keep drifting back into something that feels safe, but not particularly convincing.

And there were still issues in that game as well.

We allowed far too many crosses, didn’t get tight enough out wide, and Chelsea caused problems just by putting balls into the box. They hit the bar twice from crosses alone, which tells you everything.

However, Maguire coming back should help with that, and along with Heaven, Casemiro and Sesko, there’s enough aerial presence there to deal with balls into the box.

And that’s important, because Brentford rely on that heavily. Take that away, and you remove a big part of what they do.

‍

But it’s not just about winning headers.

It’s the second balls.
The intensity.
The basics.

Brentford will make it physical, they’ll make it uncomfortable, and if United start the game the way they usually do — slow, flat, a bit passive — then we’re asking for problems.

‍

Form

It's been up and down in recent weeks but thanks to others being even more inconsistent, dropping silly points hasn't cost United.

The win over Chelsea kept us in 3rd and at that time, opened up a 10-point gap to 6th. After Brighton beat the Blues as well, that gap has been reduced to 8. That game in hand though, gives us the opportunity to open it up to 11.

At this stage of the season, 11 points is a HUGE margin.

‍

But I'm concerned about this game.

As I said, Brentford are precisely the team we don't like to face. They have that pragmatic approach themselves and oppositions that keep things tight is something United really struggle against.

If you look at the record against the top teams compared to the bottom, you'll see exactly why I'm worried.

‍

Firstly, Brentford are in the top 10. But traditionally, we know that they are the quintessential bottom half side.

Exactly half of our points (29) have come from beating the bottom teams. It's only because of our strong record against the top sides that sees United in the position we're in. Despite five of our losses coming against the likes of City, Arsenal, Villa, Brentford (👀) and Everton, you look at those wins and you'll see once more, that just half of them have come against the bottom clubs.

Usually, you would expect to beat the lower sides more than the top.

In fact, we've dropped 20 points from 14th-placed down. 20 points against the likes of ten men Newcastle, drawing twice to West Ham, drawing against Burnley and Wolves who are both relegated, and not even beating Leeds, is unacceptable.

That's why our season hasn't been as good as it could've been.

‍

And when it comes to the Bees, it hasn't been plain sailing either.

Since that notorious 4-0 thumping in 22/23, there's been three Brentford wins (including that humiliation), three United wins and a draw. Even record.

United have however, won both of the last two at Old Trafford by the same score line of 2-1.

On the other hand, Brentford have won the last two meetings between the sides, both at the GTECH Community Stadium.

‍

There's also a major weakness that nobody is discussing:

The weekday record.

It isn't great. At all.

We've played 12 games on Monday to Friday which by the way, is quite a lot, but United have just three wins whilst picking up six draws and losing three times as well.

These are against teams like Leeds, Burnley, Wolves and West Ham.

Brentford fit that bill.

‍

Brentford

The Bees are having an incredible season under new manager Keith Andrews.

After losing so many key and influential figures over the past two seasons - Ivan Toney, Christian Norgaard, Bryan Mbeumo and manager Thomas Frank - what Andrews has done is nothing short of remarkable.

The Bees are on course for matching their highest-ever finish in the PL as they sit 9th in the table. They have 13 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses giving them a total of 48 points.

However, if they beat United and other results go their way, they could move up to as high as 6th!

I'm sure they will be pushing for European football at whatever level as well. This would be the first time in their 134-year history where they could achieve that. For a club like them, this would be sensational!

‍

Brentford are actually undefeated in their last six too 😳.

Although five of those have been five straight draws 😅.

They do also struggle a bit on the road as they are 12th in the away table. 8 of their 11 losses have come away from home. Other than Fulham, Burnley and Wolves, that is the joint-most.

‍

Looking at their record against the big six so far and it reads:

- Two wins

- Four draws

- Three losses

‍

One thing they do have in their favour is Igor Thiago. The Brazilian has 21 goals this season which is second only behind Erling Haaland. But it's not second by much - just 3 goals.

He also scored 2 goals in their 3-1 win over United earlier in the season.

Definitely a player we need to watch out for.

‍

Something else that is low key amazing about Brentford - which is something we give a lot of praise to Brighton for - is in their recruitment. Their ability to find players - or managers - to replace those that left shows a level of competence that most clubs don't have.

Clubs like United.

To lose such key people as those mentioned above would be hard for any club.

But not so for the Bees.

Fair play 👏.

‍

Prediction

I don't have a great feeling about this one. It isn't that I'm shitting myself but I'm not that confident either.

You look at those recent meetings and weekday record and it doesn't look good brev. Most of those teams are sides like Brentford as well.

I can see a draw in this one. 2-2.

Don't know whether that will be a good point or not but it shouldn't really hurt us.

‍

Kobbie Mainoo | Image via Manchester United official X (@ManUtd)

Old Trafford | Photo by Ashley Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images - The Busby Babe

Igor Thiago | Image via Brentford official X (@BrentfordFC)