Ruben Amorim takes his inconsistent yet somehow impressive (at least in Europe) Man Utd side to the favorites of Athletic Club.
Everyone knows how important these games are to United and their remarkably terrible campaign but as the final will take place at the San Mames, Ernesto Valverde will want to see his team make it to that home final.
I'm really looking forward to this one as these big games are what it's all about. Can our players deliver when it matters most though?
That is what it all comes down to.
Predicted Lineup
Everyone knows that Amorim is going to start as strong a lineup as possible and that is exactly what I've gone for. The only areas of concern is down the flanks.
I've kept Mazraoui as part of the back three which includes Maguire and Yoro and while De Ligt has traveled with the squad, the MUFC boss in his presser said that he and Amad won't be ready to start.
With the Moroccan as one of the centre-backs, it means that someone has to come in as a wing-back as remember, there is no Dalot.
With Shaw having returned to the starting lineup after over a year of absence and having played the entire games on Sunday, I doubt that Amorim will risk playing him in such a game. This is why I think he could opt for Amass as that natural left-footer on the left. Dorgu will have to shift to the right but those two positions are quite the risk given the Williams brothers of Bilbao playing down their flanks.
Amorim could choose to go with experience and select Lindelof instead of Amass, keep Dorgu on the left and Mazraoui move further forward to RWB. However, it's not as if the Swede fills many with confidence given his recent form.
Casemiro and Ugarte to hold down the midfield with Garnacho, Bruno and Hojlund ahead of them. Nothing unexpected in those areas.
Approach
Amorim was talking a little about how Bilbao play in that they are very aggressive in the press and quite physical, similar to Bournemouth which could give us an indication of what we can expect from his side.
I think we will see a game that is pretty much the same as we've seen whenever we've come up against the likes of City, Arsenal and Liverpool. United to sit back and hit on the break shouldn't be unsurprising. Our defense has been one of our stronger areas this season and when we have five at the back and two holders ahead of them, we become all the stronger.
This isn't actually the area of our game that I worry about other than Onana. We can lose focus just as Ugarte said yesterday and the goalkeeper is the number one suspect for this.
Concentration is so key especially in these games as anything can happen at any point. Athletic Club also have some top talent who are more than capable of causing us problems. We cannot give them any sniff otherwise we may as well not even bother.
Amorim was also asked about why United tend to perform better in Europe than in the PL. Goal scoring has been quite the problem domestically whereas in the EL, it has been free-flowing.
We've scored 12 goals in our last four Europa League games and 12 goals in our last 12 PL games. Why?
Whatever the case is, this means that we do have a chance in attack. The flip side to this is that Bilbao have a pretty solid defense of their own as they've conceded the joint-third fewest goals (7) in the league phase of the competition. They also boast the best defensive record in La Liga.
It may not be quite so simple for United in the final third especially if we are selfish. You know who I'm talking about.
Form
Another aspect that makes us quite the confusing side is that after our two triumphs over Sociedad and Lyon, United are still the only unbeaten side in all of Europe.
I know, crazy 🤷♂️🤯.
We finished in third in that league phase, one spot and 1 point behind tonight's opponents. Lazio and Spurs on 17 were the only sides to have scored more than our 16 in that phase as well. I doubt that anyone scored more in the knockout rounds than United's 12 as well.
We do however, let some in with 4 coming in that ridiculous game against Lyon, 2 of which were against 10 men. But as I was saying with that concentration, quite a few of the 17 we've let in in total could've been avoided had we been awake.
Another area of concern is our away form. While we remain unbeaten (yes, I will milk that as much as possible), in the six away matches, United have won just two whilst drawing the other four. Something to be careful about although a draw in Spain isn't necessarily a bad result 🤷♂️.
Athletic Club
They are the favorites. They play a better and more consistent brand of football whereas with us, we don't know what we're going to get with our chaos ball.
Spanish clubs also have a bit of a cliche in that they are very possession-based, win the ball back quickly, keep it on the ground and move the ball with speed.
It's no different with Athletic Club, probably.
Admittedly, I don't know much about them and how they play but knowing Spanish sides and how Ernesto Valverde operates, you can bet that this is something of their style.
They'll also blend this with the flair, pace and skill of the Williams brothers down the wings with that being an area for Bilbao to exploit given our issues at wing-back.
As mentioned, Valverde's team was 2nd in the league phase and in their eight matches, they won six, drew one and lost the other. They scored 15 (1 fewer than United) and conceded 7 (2 fewer than United) giving them a total of 19 points which was level with Lazio at the top who were in 1st thanks to a superior goal difference.
The four games at San Mames were won by Bilbao with the draw coming away to Roma and the loss away to Besiktas where a certain Ole Gunnar Solskjaer got his first win as the Turk's new boss. His side won 4-1.
This indicates that at home, Bilbao are very strong with that 100% record. Even in the round of 16 and quarter finals they won both the home legs against Roma and Rangers. They've also only conceded 2 goals at home in six matches which makes things even more difficult for us even if we do score a decent amount.
In La Liga, for them to have conceded fewer goals (26) than Ateltico (27) is quite an achievement. With the 50 they've scored, Athletic Club are also no mugs going forward.
However, they will be without one of their main players in Oihan Sancet as he has been ruled out of this one. Sancet is Bilbao's leading goal scorer with 17, a huge miss for the Spaniards.
But despite the scare Nico Williams will be available and how he could cause us problems. With United perhaps being weaker down the flanks, Williams will be a player that Valverde will want on the ball as often as possible particularly in transtion and on the counter, that is where they can truly hurt us.
Recent Meetings
United and Bilbao have faced off on just four occasions, twice in 1957 and the last in this competition in 2012 after United were relegated to the Europa League after a horrific Champions League campaign in which they finished 3rd in their group.
Sir Alex Ferguson's United took on 'El Loco' Marcelo Bielsa and his Bilbao team and it was a one-sided affair.
The Spaniards romped to a 3-2 win at Old Trafford before a 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture. United had no chance in either game. I remember watching those. Trust me, Bilbao were unplayable.
Let's hope nothing like that happens this time around as well.
Prediction
I don't think it will one-sided to either team.
With the importance of this competition, the boost from the win over Lyon and the fact that one can never write us off, I believe we will get a positive result.
1-1 and I would be happy with that.
Kobbie Mainoo | Image via Manchester United official X (@ManUtd)
Nico Williams | Photo by Ion Alcoba Beitia/Getty Images via Barca Blaugranes