United dropped 2 more points in what was a pretty entertaining game against Bournemouth. That 4-4 will go down as one of the games of the season but for Ruben Amorim, it was a chance missed (again) to move higher up in the table.
With Villa next, he can't afford any more slipups against a side who are the current best in the division.
Should be a good one 🍿.
Predicted Lineup
We are weaker without Mazraoui, Amad and Mbeumo. They are BIG losses.
People have been saying that this is the game where we see a formation change from Amorim. Without those three, it does put him in a bit of a pickle but to change your formation entirely just because of three absentees is a bit much in my opinion.
I don't even think we have the players to play a 4-3-3 as where will the width come from?
I think Amorim will stick to his 3-4-3.
No surprises that it's a much-changed XI.
Surely De Ligt should be back and if he is, I believe he will be starting. I was tempted to put Martinez to his left and move Shaw to LWB. However, I don't think that that will be the case as Dorgu will return to the lineup. Yoro or Heaven is a toss up as RCB but I have a feeling he'll go with Yoro because he and De Ligt have been good together.
Dalot will then move over to the right wing-back spot with a new midfield of Bruno and Mainoo as Casemiro is suspended. Wonder how this is going to go 👀.
A reshuffled front three as well with Cunha, Mount and a returning Sesko to start up front.
This is a very interesting lineup. We haven't seen a team like this before and one of our ever-present players in Mbeumo will be missing for the first time. We don't actually know how we will perform without him. There's also no attacking threat down the flanks which will be a problem as well.
We also have a group of players who haven't played much with each other. On top of this, a lot of them just haven't had many minutes recently: De Ligt (potentially) returning after three games out, Dorgu hasn't started since the Everton defeat, Dalot has played so often at LWB that I don't know how he will slot into what was thought to be his more accustomed RWB spot, Mainoo hasn't started at all this season in the league and a lot of people have their reservations about him besides, and Sesko has been injured for a month. How will he fair?
It's not a side that gives me loads of confidence if I'm being completely honest 😐.
Approach
This shouldn't be any surprise that we will probably look to defend-and-counter. And tbh, I would agree with that.
It's not the style any of us truly want to play but considering where we are and how inconsistent we can be, this type of approach against the league's most in-form side makes sense, even more so at Villa Park.
This could work in our favour though. As we've seen throughout the season that when United come up against teams that open up and look to play ball, that's when we come alive.
Liverpool, Brighton, Wolves are three such matches and it's no coincidence that we looked at our best during those victories.
Villa are high on confidence at the moment. Playing in front of their fans and knowing that United can be there for the taking, I doubt good ebening Unai Emery will change his approach as he will continue to play on the front-foot.
I think we need to use that against them.
Considering we will be without our best duo going forward of Amad and Mbeumo, there's even more reason to play more compact and hit on the break. It will most likely be Dalot and Dorgu as the wing-backs which will be more defensive than usual. This will weaken us going forward.
This is why players like Bruno, Mount and Cunha will be key. The Brazilian in particular needs to step up to the plate because he has been well below par this season. We expect more from him given the quality he has and in games like these, he can be the difference.
His goal and overall performance against Bournemouth however, was more the player we want to see and should give him added confidence in this one. That was the Wolves Cunha.
With his creativity and ability to dribble, whenever we need someone to keep hold of the ball and drive us forward especially in difficult situations, Cunha can be that player.
As Villa may leave spaces to exploit, he and Bruno in particular will have the opportunities to create. Brighton, Wolves and Bournemouth allowed us to flourish going forward as they were our three highest-scoring games. United put the ball in the back of the net 4 times in all three of those matches as well as created a load of good chances.
Against the Seagulls, United had a total of 13 shots with 9 on target and of course, scoring 4 times. This was also the game where Cunha got his first goal for the club as well as picked up the man of the match award.
At Wolves, it was 27 shots with 10 on target and 4 scored which again, is a healthy reading.
Against the Cherries, United had 24 shots and 9 on target which is not too dissimilar to Wolves.
All four of Cunha, Mbeumo, Mount and Bruno have been involved in the goals lately and why they have to be so pivotal again even more so without the Cameroonian who has been prolific whenever given the chances.
The captain's recent form has been splendid as well scoring and assisting once again in that 4-4 draw.
Sesko can be used as an outlet to hold the ball up, flick it on for runs in behind or link up the play. The Slovenian will also need to be a focal point whenever we go long which is something we like to do. These long balls could be the case once more due to us being the underdog and looking to hit on the break.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Villa are really good at the moment but they do have their strengths and weaknesses much like every other team.
United are the best when it comes to set-pieces which is a strength of ours regardless of who we play against. We've scored 11 which is the most in the league. That makes up for more than 35% of all our goals this season.
One area where we can exploit Villa is with how we start the game. When it comes to first half form, United are 4th in the table whereas Villa are 13th. We've also scored the opener in eight of our last ten matches losing just one which was to Everton.
Villa have also gone behind in eight matches this season. However, and this is one of their strengths, despite going behind, they've managed to come back and win in five of those eight matches meaning that they sit top of the table for most points won after falling behind.
We know that United have the habit of switching off after the break (sometimes straight away) as our second half form shows us in the bottom 3 (18th). In contrast to that, Emery's team are in the top 3 in the second 45 (3rd).
It seems to be a clash of halves between the two.
Both sides average around the same amount of possession (United 54%, Villa 53%) but that percentage drops to 47% for the Villans when playing against the other big 6 teams (Spurs, City, Liverpool, Arsenal). United's average possession also drops to 52% away from home.
This could indicate that both teams prefer to play the more counter-attacking game to suit their quick and flair players on the break. Villa have a few of these like Ollie Watkins, Donyell Malen and Morgan Rogers.
What they don't like is playing against sides who sit deep and keep things tight. Teams such as Burnley, Leeds, Wolves and West Ham were all games in which Villa dominated but struggled to get a comfortable win. All of those were won by the odd goal. This type of approach is more suited to us.
Emery also likes to play a high line which is something else that United prefer. These are the type of opponents that we usually perform against and seeing an opposition defense up near the halfway line will be a sight for sore eyes.
Forms
The good news for United after that draw last time out was that we remianed 6th. The bad news is that we remained 6th as there was a chance to move up into 4th.
That 4-4 also meant that we have still suffered just one defeat in our last ten which is something. On the other hand, we have just two wins in our last seven which is not something.
Away from home though, and our form has improved after the wins over Palace and Wolves, our last two on the road. This means we have a total of three victories after our first at Anfield putting us in a healthy 7th in the away table giving us a total of 12 points.
Only City, Spurs and Chelsea have scored more than our 14. However, we've also conceded 14 which is the second-most in the top 10 behind Liverpool. Those 14 let in are the same as Wolves 😬.
This shows our season so far: improved going forward but still can't defend properly.
In eight matches against the top half, United have five wins and three losses.
Against the bottom half though, and things ain't looking good brev.
These eight matches have seen us draw five, win just two and lose to Brentford giving us a total of 24.
Villa's overall home record is very strong as Emery's side are 3rd in the home table. They've also suffered just one defeat at Villa Park.
One positive for United is that Villa have scored just 13 at home which is 1 fewer than we've managed away. That solitary loss was handed to them by Palace who won 3-0. However, this was earlier in the season when Villa were really struggling as they failed to score in any of their first four matches.
Since then though, a complete turnaround 😳.
They've won ALL of their last six in the league and eight in all competitions. This run included a 4-0 thumping of the then high-flying Bournemouth, a 2-1 win over leaders Arsenal and two comebacks triumphs over Brighton and West Ham in matches that saw 12 goals scored.
They've also faced four of the big 6 winning three and losing one which was to Liverpool of all teams.
Emery and co sit in 3rd with 33 points which is just 3 behind the Gunners at the top.
Unlike some of our recent opponents though, United do have a healthy record against the Villans. In the last five league meetings, we've won four and drawn one keeping three clean sheets in this time.
In fact, since 2010, Villa have beaten United just twice in all competitions.
We are like their bogey side 😅.
Aston Villa
To go from not scoring in your first four matches to potential title challengers at this stage shows what a remarkable job Emery has done. To take Villa from nigh on relegation when Steven Gerrard was in charge to back-to-back European qualification and the football we're seeing is a testament to the work the manager has done.
Emery has completely changed the atmosphere at Villa Park.
As mentioned they are the best team on form at the moment but I would also say they are one of the best to watch. They score goals (25), play entertaining football and win games which is why they're in the position they're in.
This is an example for United and Amorim. Emery took such a poor side to where they are based on an identity and style of play that people can get behind. It wasn't just results driven but it was more to play a brand that would not only get them the points but also to get the fan base behind the manager as it would give them an idea of what he wants to do and the vision of the team for the future.
Yes you can say that Emery has players who aren't let downs compared to what Amorim has at United yet even still, how he's gotten them to believe in his principles and play how he wants is something that cannot be overlooked.
What is also eye-opening is Emery's record against United. In 16 previous meetings with the Red Devils, Emery has won just three whilst drawing four and losing nine! He also seems to struggle when playing the bigger teams as against City, Chelsea and Liverpool he has just eight wins in 37 games.
We have a chance 🙌.
When it comes to their team though, they have so much quality: Morgan Rogers, John McGinn, Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans, Matty Cash, Donyell Malen, United targets Emi Martinez and Ollie Watkins, and of course ex-Red Victor Lindelof as well as loanee Jadon Sancho who won't be able to play against his parent club.
That is quality.
More than this, I feel as though Villa are a god team. Despite the quality of the individuals, they seem to have a great chemistry, bond and understanding with each other which is another reason as to why they are the best in the business on current form.
There will also be no advantage for United as Villa had a week off as well. If anything, we have a slight disadvantage as we had a day less of a break due to playing on Monday night.
Prediction
Can go either way:
- Current form would suggest Villa
- Style of play could favour United
- Villa Park is a bit of a fortress
- United are decent away
- Villa have beaten three of four big 6 sides
- United have strong record v Emery and Villa
Tbh though, I think we'll do a job. I can't see us losing. A positive result for United WILL occur. 2-2 or a 2-1 win.
When you think we'll lose, we don't. We also tend to perform against the better teams than the shit ones.
What are your predictions?
Emi Martinez | Image via Aston Villa official X (@AVFCOfficial)
Villa Park | Creator: Marc Atkins | Credit: Getty Images Copyright: 2024 Marc Atkins via Aston Villa News
Senne Lammens | Image via Manchester United official X (@ManUtd)